Overall, I’m mostly happy with the major category nominees. As always, there are a few glaring omissions (no Amy Adams in Best Actress is disappointing, but “Drive It Like You Stole It” getting snubbed in Best Song is downright criminal) and some puzzling inclusions (the Academy really loved Hacksaw Ridge), but there’s not much to quibble with.
Here are my rapid-fire thoughts on a few of the biggest categories, along with some predictions that are sure to be wrong. I almost never win the Oscar pool, but that doesn’t keep me from guessing anyway.
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
This category always has a couple of “huh?” slots, which My Life as a Zucchini and The Red Turtle fill this year. I’d love to see Kubo and the Two Strings win because it’s an amazing film and my favorite of the bunch. I suppose it could happen if the two Disney films split the vote, but I’m taking a total shot in the dark that Moana comes out on top.
Best Supporting Actor:
Zootopia
This category always has a couple of “huh?” slots, which My Life as a Zucchini and The Red Turtle fill this year. I’d love to see Kubo and the Two Strings win because it’s an amazing film and my favorite of the bunch. I suppose it could happen if the two Disney films split the vote, but I’m taking a total shot in the dark that Moana comes out on top.
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Honestly, I’m just thrilled Ali made the cut. The supporting categories are where the crazy surprises tend to happen, but this one shook out about like I thought. Shannon’s inclusion is a little unexpected, but the guy’s a fantastic actor. Ali’s been the frontrunner since Moonlight starting blowing people away at festival screenings, and for good reason – he’s incredible in a small but pivotal role. Look for him to win unless Bridges plays the spoiler.
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Honestly, I’m just thrilled Ali made the cut. The supporting categories are where the crazy surprises tend to happen, but this one shook out about like I thought. Shannon’s inclusion is a little unexpected, but the guy’s a fantastic actor. Ali’s been the frontrunner since Moonlight starting blowing people away at festival screenings, and for good reason – he’s incredible in a small but pivotal role. Look for him to win unless Bridges plays the spoiler.
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
This one’s the surest bet of the evening. Davis, one of this generation’s finest actresses, is taking home her first Oscar. She certainly deserves it for her performance in Fences, even though I’d argue it’s not a supporting role. She’s the co-lead. But I get it – the Oscars are as much about politics as they are merit. She figured that she’d have a better shot at winning here, and she’s not wrong.
Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
This is a two-man race between Affleck, quietly devastating as a troubled guy coping with his brother’s death, and Washington, a powerhouse as a 1950s-era husband full of rage and regret. If you subscribe to the philosophy that Oscar voters think “best” equals “most,” then Washington probably comes out on top. But my gut says that Affleck’s work in will be too strong to ignore, especially a soul-crushing scene at the film’s midpoint.
Best Actress:
This one’s the surest bet of the evening. Davis, one of this generation’s finest actresses, is taking home her first Oscar. She certainly deserves it for her performance in Fences, even though I’d argue it’s not a supporting role. She’s the co-lead. But I get it – the Oscars are as much about politics as they are merit. She figured that she’d have a better shot at winning here, and she’s not wrong.
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
This is a two-man race between Affleck, quietly devastating as a troubled guy coping with his brother’s death, and Washington, a powerhouse as a 1950s-era husband full of rage and regret. If you subscribe to the philosophy that Oscar voters think “best” equals “most,” then Washington probably comes out on top. But my gut says that Affleck’s work in will be too strong to ignore, especially a soul-crushing scene at the film’s midpoint.
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
This marks Streep’s 20th Oscar nomination (not too shabby for an “overrated” actress, huh?), but Portman has been the frontrunner for months. Still, she already has her little gold guy, so I’m adopting a “spread the wealth” philosophy this year. I was hoping that Adams would win in a surprise upset, but she wasn’t even nominated. As such, I’m hoping Stone rides to her first win on a wave of La La Land adoration.
Best Director:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
The big surprise here, at least for me, is Gibson’s inclusion. I guess this means his well-publicized tirade a few years back is officially water under the bridge for Academy. The winner depends on how generous voters are feeling. In the past, Best Director and Best Picture frequently went to the same film. If there’s a return to that tradition, Chazelle wins. However, in the last couple of years, this has served as a consolation prize for the Best Picture runner-up. If that trend holds, Jenkins will make history as the first African American filmmaker to earn this achievement. It could go either way, but I’m guessing the momentum for La La Land will be too strong to overcome. I’ve got no qualms with either of these guys winning. Their films are amazing.
Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Overall, this one of the strongest batches of Best Picture nominees I can remember. I still haven’t seen Lion and Hacksaw Ridge (which I hope to rectify by Oscar night), but I’d have no complaints with literally any of the other films winning. As with Best Director, this is a two-way race between La La Land and Moonlight. They’re both staggeringly beautiful films, although vastly different from one another. Still, it’s important to remember that Hollywood loves patting itself on the back. Three of the last five Best Picture winners have been about the film industry (The Artist, Argo and Birdman). Since La La Land is about two struggling artists falling in love and trying to make it in show business, we should probably plan on adding it to the list.
Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 26 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting for the first time, which makes sense considering his talk show is already a big hit for the network. He’s not exactly my favorite, but I’m sure the self-important celebrities in the room will appreciate his mild teasing more than comedians like Chris Rock or Jon Stewart who put jokes before egos.
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
This marks Streep’s 20th Oscar nomination (not too shabby for an “overrated” actress, huh?), but Portman has been the frontrunner for months. Still, she already has her little gold guy, so I’m adopting a “spread the wealth” philosophy this year. I was hoping that Adams would win in a surprise upset, but she wasn’t even nominated. As such, I’m hoping Stone rides to her first win on a wave of La La Land adoration.
Best Director:
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
The big surprise here, at least for me, is Gibson’s inclusion. I guess this means his well-publicized tirade a few years back is officially water under the bridge for Academy. The winner depends on how generous voters are feeling. In the past, Best Director and Best Picture frequently went to the same film. If there’s a return to that tradition, Chazelle wins. However, in the last couple of years, this has served as a consolation prize for the Best Picture runner-up. If that trend holds, Jenkins will make history as the first African American filmmaker to earn this achievement. It could go either way, but I’m guessing the momentum for La La Land will be too strong to overcome. I’ve got no qualms with either of these guys winning. Their films are amazing.
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Overall, this one of the strongest batches of Best Picture nominees I can remember. I still haven’t seen Lion and Hacksaw Ridge (which I hope to rectify by Oscar night), but I’d have no complaints with literally any of the other films winning. As with Best Director, this is a two-way race between La La Land and Moonlight. They’re both staggeringly beautiful films, although vastly different from one another. Still, it’s important to remember that Hollywood loves patting itself on the back. Three of the last five Best Picture winners have been about the film industry (The Artist, Argo and Birdman). Since La La Land is about two struggling artists falling in love and trying to make it in show business, we should probably plan on adding it to the list.
Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 26 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting for the first time, which makes sense considering his talk show is already a big hit for the network. He’s not exactly my favorite, but I’m sure the self-important celebrities in the room will appreciate his mild teasing more than comedians like Chris Rock or Jon Stewart who put jokes before egos.
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