OPINION: 2014 Oscar Nominations

Courtesy of AMPAS

In the week since the Oscar nominations were announced, I remain mostly satisfied with this year’s field. I’m still puzzled about a few names included and left off the list, but it’s an overall solid list that spreads the love around. Mostly, I’m jazzed that The Wolf of Wall Street got more love than I was expecting and Her found its way into a crowded Best Picture field.

As always, I’ve got some catching up to do before March 2. Until then, here are the nominees in some of the top categories, along with my gut reactions and sure-to-be-wrong predictions. Seriously, awards season has been particularly crazy this year; don’t even think about betting money on these guesses.

Best Animated Feature:

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest and Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Frozen has this one in the bag unless voters decide to go the artsy route with The Wind Rises (a possibility, considering it is revered animator Hayao Miyazaki’s last film). It’s a return to form for Disney, the visuals are gorgeous, the casting is inspired and the songs are wonderful. (“Let It Go” should also be a shoo-in for Best Song unless the Academy has lost its collective mind.)

Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

The biggest surprise here is Hill, possibly stealing Hanks’ spot (for playing a delightful, albeit highly fictional, version of Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks), though I won’t complain. His performance as Leonardo DiCaprio’s twisted sidekick was vulgar, hilarious and representative of a world with no morals. I’m also happy to see Abdi’s name, but – based on how awards season has shaped up so far – Leto’s about to win his first Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Lawrence’s inclusion was inevitable because the Academy adores her (hey, they’re not completely bonkers) and American Hustle. The most unexpected inclusion – for me, anyway – is Roberts, though her nomination was always an outside possibility (especially since co-star Streep’s showboating makes her look downright subtle in comparison). Still, Nyong’o is likely to win for her devastating, brilliant work as the unfortunate slave who becomes an obsession for her psychopathic captor.

Best Actor:

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club 

I’m assuming Hanks’ exclusion here (despite his tense, wrenching performance in Captain Phillips) is an unfortunate result of the Academy’s American Hustle love. Bale is good as con man Irving Rosenfeld, but there’s a reason Tina Fey jokingly called the film Explosion at the Wig Factory at the Golden Globes. A couple of months ago, I would’ve declared Ejiofor’s victory inevitable, but the momentum has shifted dramatically in McConaughey’s direction. Plan on hearing the words “alright, alright, alright” from the Oscar stage unless voters decide to treat the category as Dern’s lifetime achievement award.

Best Actress:

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County 

I’m happy to see Adam’s name appear outside the Best Supporting Actress category for the first time. I still can’t believe she remains winless, but 2014 isn’t her year either (unless American Hustle fever truly sweeps the evening). Streep only got nominated out of continued Academy adoration, probably stealing the spot from a far more deserving Thompson, who gave one of the best performances of her career in Saving Mr. Banks. Nevertheless, Blanchett nabbed this one while Blue Jasmine was still on the festival circuit.

Best Director:

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Here’s where things start getting hazy. This has been one of the closest awards seasons in years, and Best Director sometimes serves as a consolation prize (especially if you’re poor Ang Lee). My gut tells me Cuaron wins because of the astonishing technological innovation and sheer spectacle of Gravity, especially if 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle wins the Best Picture race. However, I wouldn’t be at all shocked to hear either Russell or McQueen’s name called instead.

Best Picture:

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity
Her
Nebraska

Philomena
12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

It’s nice to see Her and The Wolf of Wall Street among the nominees, but there are only three potential victors here: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. And, for the first time in recent memory, there’s a genuine three-way tie right now. Granted, the momentum can shift over the next month or so, but right now it’s anyone’s guess. It all depends on what kind of mood the Academy’s in when ballots go out.

Do they have history and their reputation in mind? If so, it’s 12 Years a Slave. Or are they looking to reward the movie that provided the most fun? In that case, I’d wager that American Hustle ekes out a win over Gravity. (Honestly, I think winning Best Picture is the worst thing that could happen to American Hustle in terms of its long-term reputation. Time isn’t going to be kind to it. But the Academy has made that mistake many times before – look at the other films nominated when Crash, Shakespeare in Love and Dances with Wolves took home the top prize.)

Watch ABC on Sunday, March 2 at 8 p.m. to see how everything pans out. Ellen DeGeneres, hosting for the second time, is a reliable choice. She’ll do a fine job, but don’t look for anything resembling the biting satire that Tina Fey and Amy Poehler recently served up at the Golden Globes.