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Now that I’ve had a week to process the Oscar nominations, I see that – overall – it’s business as usual. There are the usual surprise inclusions and shocking omissions, some of which were seen as frontrunners until last Thursday morning.
However, there is one aspect of this year’s nominees that I still can’t wrap my head around: in one of the most diverse years of cinema I can remember, this is a distinctly monochromatic group of contenders. All four acting categories are made up of white nominees, despite stellar performances from actors like David Oyelowo and Gugu Mbatha-Raw.
Granted, this isn’t entirely the Academy’s fault; it speaks to issues within the entertainment industry as a whole. But the organization should probably keep in mind that their members are 94 percent white, 77 percent male and have a median age of 62. When 100 percent of the actors they nominate can check the same box on a Census form, the prestigious group risks looking ridiculously out of touch with the people who pay to see the movies they celebrate.
That being said, here are my thoughts on some of the night’s biggest categories, as well as my incredibly early, sure to be incorrect predictions. In a year as unpredictable and politically charged as this one, you’d be crazy to bet on my picks. But – just for fun – here we go…
Best Animated Feature:
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
The biggest surprise here is the absence of The Lego Movie, which most prognosticators expected to be a shoo-in for the statue. Instead, its failure to earn a nomination blows the race wide open. Normally, I’d say Disney has the advantage in this category, but Big Hero 6 – despite the presence of the adorable Baymax – was nowhere near the juggernaut that Frozen was. I’m guessing How to Train Your Dragon 2 will win, although that might just be wishful thinking since I love the movie so much.
Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
I love Hawke’s performance as a cool dad who finally learns how to be a real father. But this is ultimately a two-way race between Norton, delightfully poking fun at his reputation as a difficult actor, and Simmons, who is terrifying and disconcertingly persuasive as a sadistic music instructor. I’d honestly be fine with either of them winning, but Simmons is my favorite and I think he’s got the edge.
Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Streep is good, but she’s only here because the Academy would nominate her for starring in a home movie where she cuts her toenails. I’m happy to see Dern and Knightley in the mix, but the nomination is the reward for both. I think Arquette will win – deservedly so – for her wonderful work as a loving mother with a restless spirit. Too bad it means Stone (one of my favorite actresses) will lose, but something tells me she’ll eventually make her way to the Oscar stage. It’s only a matter of time.
Best Actor:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
As I mentioned earlier, I’m extremely disappointed that David Oyelowo missed out on a nomination for his phenomenal performance as Martin Luther King Jr. in Selma. But I can take solace in the fact that one of my favorite actors of all time – and still my choice for the best Batman – is currently on track to take home an Oscar. Keaton has been the frontrunner for most of awards season, but there’s always a chance that Redmayne, who earned rave reviews for his work as physicist Stephen Hawking, could play spoiler. Oscar voters love physical transformations and characters with disabilities, so it’s a real possibility. But I think he and fellow Brit Cumberbatch will end up splitting the Anglophile vote.
Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
I’m bummed that Gugu Mbatha-Raw missed out here, despite two strong, wildly different roles in Belle and Beyond the Lights. But neither of them was on Academy voters’ radars, so it’s not as big a shock as Oyelowo’s snub. Regardless, this is one of the night’s biggest locks. Moore has delivered numerous Oscar-worthy performances in her career, but her work as a linguistics professor who suffers from Early Onset Alzheimer’s is the one that will seal the deal.
Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
I still don’t know why Ava DuVernay isn’t included here. Her depiction of the iconic events that took place in Selma, Ala. during the Civil Rights Movement was harrowing, devastating and timely. She’s a much more deserving nominee than Tyldum, whose competent direction wouldn’t be out of place in a BBC miniseries. I’m also not sure why Miller is here when his movie didn’t make the cut for Best Picture. Probably related to Oscar politics I know nothing about. The race is between Inarritu, who pulled off some lengthy, creative single-take shots in Birdman, and Linklater, who spent 12 years bringing an experimental, moving slice of humanity to life. I hope it’s not wishful thinking, but I think Linklater is going to pull off the win.
Best Picture:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
If my Twitter and Facebook feeds are any indication, this category is the most controversial I’ve seen in years. I’m ecstatic to see The Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash listed here, nice surprises among more expected nominees. As always, look to the Best Director category to see who the real contenders are (with 2012’s Argo serving as the exception that proves the rule). Among those, I’d argue Boyhood and The Imitation Game are the only two with a real shot. With recent headlines suggesting that voters are getting tired of arguing about the artistic liberties taken in fact-based films, I’m guessing they’ll go with the fictional Boyhood, which has an astounding, epic backstory and also happens to be my pick for the Best Film of 2014.
Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 22 at 8:30 p.m. to see who wins. Neil Patrick Harris is hosting for the first time, a choice that makes perfect sense since he did such a great job emceeing the Emmys and the Tonys. Can someone get an EGOT for hosting duties? If so, he’s got it in the bag once he hosts the Grammys.
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