MY TAKE: 2016 Oscar Nominations

Now that I’ve had a week to process the Oscar nominations, I’m mostly happy with them from an artistic standpoint. Other than a couple of glaring omissions and some puzzling inclusions, most of the films seem like they deserve to be mentioned when talking about the year’s best.

However, it’s extremely frustrating that, yet again, all four acting categories lack diversity. You could call one year a fluke, but two in a row? When actors like Michael B. Jordan, Idris Elba, Tessa Thompson, Jason Mitchell and Benicio del Toro are in contention for statues? That’s messed up.

With that complaint out of the way, here are my thoughts on a few of the biggest categories, along with my early, probably wrong predictions. This has been a weird awards season, so instead of listening to me you should probably just toss a coin. But let’s do it anyway, just for fun.

Best Animated Feature:

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Boy and the World and When Marnie Was There are the category’s usual left-field nominees. I’m beyond excited that the underrated Shaun the Sheep Movie got a nomination because maybe that means more people will see it. But the battle is between Charlie Kaufman’s stop-motion drama Anomalisa and Pixar’s masterpiece Inside Out, with my gut telling me that the latter will pull off the win.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

I enjoyed Bale’s performance in The Big Short, but I would’ve preferred Steve Carell as the cast representative. Ruffalo and Rylance were both fantastic, so no gripes there. Tom Hardy is one of two nominations The Revenant got that I’m actually in agreement with; he’s genuinely great in a movie that’s just okay. So that leaves me rooting for Stallone, who’s shaping up to be the sentimental favorite. What’s more, it wouldn’t be a “he’s due” win like a frontrunner we’ll discuss two categories from now. He totally deserves it for his emotionally devastating work in Creed.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Leigh is incredible in The Hateful Eight, but her role’s too divisive for Academy voters. Mara and Vikander are strong actresses, but most critics agree they should’ve been in Best Actress for their work instead. McAdams is good, but she barely has anything to do in Spotlight. That leaves Kate Winslet, who might win this one by default. My hope is that Vikander ekes out the victory because voters finally saw Ex Machina. That’s what she should’ve been nominated – and should win – for.

Best Actor:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Cranston’s a phenomenal actor, but his work in Trumbo was too over-the-top. His spot should’ve gone to Michael B. Jordan for his brilliant performance in Creed. Redmayne seems to specifically choose roles designed to win acting trophies. It worked last year when he played Stephen Hawking, but someone else in the category topped him in that regard this time around. I’m not talking about Damon or Fassbender; I’d be thrilled to see either of them win. Nope, it’s finally DiCaprio’s year because the prevailing narrative is that he “suffered for his art” and because “he’s due.” Oh, well. I’ll just pretend he’s finally winning for The Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Blanchett’s an amazing actress, but she just won two years ago. I love Lawrence, but the consensus is that her inclusion this year is nonsense (people actually laughed when her name was announced). Ronan’s performance in Brooklyn is incredible, but her competition this year is just too strong. It comes down to Rampling, a critical darling who has been making films for 50 years, and Larson, whose work in Room left me an emotional wreck. It could go either way, but I’m thinking Larson has the momentum because she’s got the showier role. Works for me, considering she was just as strong in 2013’s Short Term 12 and Oscar ignored her then.

Best Director:

Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

If you go with the prevailing wisdom that Academy voters confuse “best” with “most,” Miller should have this in the bag. Mad Max: Fury Road is mind-blowingly awesome and the 70-year-old industry veteran is absolutely deserving of the trophy. I’ve got a feeling he might just get it. Honestly, I’d be okay with McKay, Abrahamson or McCarthy winning too. They all took difficult material and shaped it into compelling stories that fascinated audiences when they could’ve bored or alienated instead. All I know is that I’m going to punch a wall if the pretentious Iñárritu wins back-to-back. I know these things ultimately don’t matter, but that’s just ridiculous. His spot should’ve gone to Ryan Coogler for Creed.

Best Picture:

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

The night’s most prominent award remains the biggest mystery for me. This has been a weird award season with no clear frontrunner. If we go with the assumption that the “real” nominees are the ones that also have Best Director nominations, that (sadly) gets rid of Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and The Martian. From the five that remain, I would imagine we can also lose Room (which will get its recognition in Best Actress) and Mad Max: Fury Road (which may win Best Director for its technical feats, but I’m guessing it’s not “serious” enough to take home the top prize). After those, strike through The Revenant, which is pretty but shallow – unless Oscar voters enrage me with their Iñárritu love. That leaves The Big Short and Spotlight, which are both “issue” films. If I had to guess (and that’s seriously what I’m doing) I’d say the win goes to Spotlight, which highlights the importance of writers. Never underestimate Hollywood’s desire to connect itself (however loosely) to solving the world’s problems. In this case, I don’t mind because it was the best movie of 2015.

Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 28 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Chris Rock is hosting for the second time (the first was way back in 2005), which should be a blast. It’s always fun when the master of ceremonies is determined to deflate the giant egos in the room. I’m sure he won’t have anything to say about the curious makeup of the acting categories.