There’s plenty to be excited about (like strong showings for Get Out and Lady Bird), a few omissions that disappointed me (mostly the absence of Steven Spielberg’s underrated The Post, aside from a couple of perfunctory nods) and a couple of general headscratchers (I never expected to see the words Boss Baby and “Oscar nominee” in the same sentence).
Here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories, along with my early, probably wrong predictions. If you’re counting on my help to win your office’s Oscar pool, I’ve got some bad news...
Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Coco is the biggest shoo-in of the night. The gorgeous, emotional story is a return to form for Pixar and light-years ahead of the other nominees. I repeat: Coco is up against Boss Baby.
Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
I’m pleasantly surprised to see Logan here, perhaps a sign that voters aren’t as dismissive of the superhero genre as they used to be. I’m rooting for Mudbound (especially since it was overlooked in the Best Picture and Best Director categories), but I predict Ivory, a longtime Hollywood favorite, wins for Call Me by Your Name.
Best Original Screenplay:
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, Get Out
What an insanely talented group of writers. I’m disappointed that The Big Sick didn’t make a stronger showing, perhaps a clue that its presence here is a win in itself. I’m cynically thinking this is where Oscar voters award Peele’s ingenuity so they don’t have to “lower themselves” and vote for a horror flick in the traditionally self-important Best Picture category. However, if Three Billboards ends up dominating the evening, look for McDonagh to win here as well.
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I’m hoping for Dafoe to emerge victorious for his poignant, deeply humane performance in The Florida Project, especially since the outstanding film was ignored in other categories. However, based on the trajectory of awards season so far, Rockwell seems to be the fave. The big question mark here is Harrelson, who’s also terrific. If the two co-stars end up splitting the vote, Dafoe could squeak by with the win.
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Manville’s name is the biggest surprise here (I predicted Holly Hunter for The Big Sick), but this was always going to be a close race between Janney and Metcalf – both of whom are incredible in their respective films. I’m pulling for Metcalf, but Janney’s role is showier, which Academy voters tend to prefer. Either way, an immensely talented character actress with decades of stellar performances to her credit will finally be rewarded for her efforts.
Best Actor:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I’m thrilled to see Kaluuya’s name here. He delivers a magnetic performance that’s far more complex than it appears on the surface. I’m also disappointed that Tom Hanks didn’t make the cut for The Post. He hasn’t been nominated since 2000’s Cast Away, which proves how much we take him for granted. Washington’s name is a surprise considering his movie was a critical and commercial flop, but he seems to be replacing James Franco, who’s currently mired in controversy. Honestly, it doesn’t really matter. Oldman has it in the bag unless voters give Day-Lewis a parting gift – he’s supposedly retired now.
Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
This category might be the strongest of the night; it’s an embarrassment of riches. Every one of these women gave an incredible performance and I’d be thrilled to see any of them win. I’m rooting for Ronan, but McDormand has dominated awards season so far. Unless there’s an upset, she’s taking home her second gold guy (she won in 1997 for Fargo).
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Yet another group that’s tough to complain about. I would’ve liked to see Spielberg’s name here (did I mention that I really loved The Post?), but I’m happy overall. I’d love for Peele to shock everyone with a win, but it’s between Nolan (his first time in this category, which is baffling) and del Toro. Flipping a coin and guessing del Toro emerges victorious.
Best Picture:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is a mostly solid collection of nominees. I’d rather see The Florida Project here instead of Darkest Hour, but the latter clearly scored with older voters. I’d love a Get Out win, but I don’t think it’ll happen. The Shape of Water and Three Billboards will fight it out over the next month or so. Unless the latter proves too divisive (those who hate it are incredibly vocal about it – a disadvantage since the Academy utilizes a preferential ballot), it’ll emerge as the most contentious Best Picture winner since Crash beat Brokeback Mountain.
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 4 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is returning as host. He was surprisingly good last year, deftly juggling comedy and placating the giant egos in the room. Plus, he admirably handled the Moonlight/La La Land fiasco. I’m sure we won’t hear any jokes about that in his monologue.
I’m pleasantly surprised to see Logan here, perhaps a sign that voters aren’t as dismissive of the superhero genre as they used to be. I’m rooting for Mudbound (especially since it was overlooked in the Best Picture and Best Director categories), but I predict Ivory, a longtime Hollywood favorite, wins for Call Me by Your Name.
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, Get Out
What an insanely talented group of writers. I’m disappointed that The Big Sick didn’t make a stronger showing, perhaps a clue that its presence here is a win in itself. I’m cynically thinking this is where Oscar voters award Peele’s ingenuity so they don’t have to “lower themselves” and vote for a horror flick in the traditionally self-important Best Picture category. However, if Three Billboards ends up dominating the evening, look for McDonagh to win here as well.
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I’m hoping for Dafoe to emerge victorious for his poignant, deeply humane performance in The Florida Project, especially since the outstanding film was ignored in other categories. However, based on the trajectory of awards season so far, Rockwell seems to be the fave. The big question mark here is Harrelson, who’s also terrific. If the two co-stars end up splitting the vote, Dafoe could squeak by with the win.
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Manville’s name is the biggest surprise here (I predicted Holly Hunter for The Big Sick), but this was always going to be a close race between Janney and Metcalf – both of whom are incredible in their respective films. I’m pulling for Metcalf, but Janney’s role is showier, which Academy voters tend to prefer. Either way, an immensely talented character actress with decades of stellar performances to her credit will finally be rewarded for her efforts.
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I’m thrilled to see Kaluuya’s name here. He delivers a magnetic performance that’s far more complex than it appears on the surface. I’m also disappointed that Tom Hanks didn’t make the cut for The Post. He hasn’t been nominated since 2000’s Cast Away, which proves how much we take him for granted. Washington’s name is a surprise considering his movie was a critical and commercial flop, but he seems to be replacing James Franco, who’s currently mired in controversy. Honestly, it doesn’t really matter. Oldman has it in the bag unless voters give Day-Lewis a parting gift – he’s supposedly retired now.
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
This category might be the strongest of the night; it’s an embarrassment of riches. Every one of these women gave an incredible performance and I’d be thrilled to see any of them win. I’m rooting for Ronan, but McDormand has dominated awards season so far. Unless there’s an upset, she’s taking home her second gold guy (she won in 1997 for Fargo).
Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Yet another group that’s tough to complain about. I would’ve liked to see Spielberg’s name here (did I mention that I really loved The Post?), but I’m happy overall. I’d love for Peele to shock everyone with a win, but it’s between Nolan (his first time in this category, which is baffling) and del Toro. Flipping a coin and guessing del Toro emerges victorious.
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is a mostly solid collection of nominees. I’d rather see The Florida Project here instead of Darkest Hour, but the latter clearly scored with older voters. I’d love a Get Out win, but I don’t think it’ll happen. The Shape of Water and Three Billboards will fight it out over the next month or so. Unless the latter proves too divisive (those who hate it are incredibly vocal about it – a disadvantage since the Academy utilizes a preferential ballot), it’ll emerge as the most contentious Best Picture winner since Crash beat Brokeback Mountain.
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 4 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is returning as host. He was surprisingly good last year, deftly juggling comedy and placating the giant egos in the room. Plus, he admirably handled the Moonlight/La La Land fiasco. I’m sure we won’t hear any jokes about that in his monologue.
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