JOSH'S TAKE: 2020 Oscar Nominations

by Josh Sewell

The Academy Award nominations were announced on Monday morning and my reactions were all over the board. With a couple of exceptions, I genuinely have no idea how the results will play out. On one hand, that’s exciting. On the other, I really don’t want a repeat of last year’s Green Book fiasco.

As it stands, we’ve got a better-than-solid chance of that happening thanks to a staggering 11 nominations for Todd Phillips’ Joker. The film’s huge showing is a perfect illustration of how you can better understand the Academy’s mindset by replacing “best” with “most.”

As always, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories, including who I think should win and my almost-certain-to-be-wrong ramblings about who might. Do not – I repeat, do not – use this article to win your office’s Oscar pool. That will end in tears.

Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 

The big story in this category is what’s not here: Frozen II lost out over a couple of under-the-radar choices. I Lost My Body and Klaus (both available on Netflix) are critically acclaimed but didn’t really make their way into mainstream conversation. Toy Story 4 is probably your winner unless there’s a wild card at play.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Because Gerwig’s masterful adaptation of Little Women got a Best Picture nod, yet her name was noticeably absent from the all-male Best Director category, I’m hoping that gives her an edge in this field. But if Joker starts cleaning up in early categories, don’t count it out. The love for that film in the Academy is real, despite my personal feelings. There’s also a small chance Jojo Rabbit might pick up its only prize of the night here. 

Best Original Screenplay:
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, Parasite

I’d love to see Johnson win since Knives Out is such a tight, perfectly structured film. However, I think it’ll end up going to either Baumbach for the rich, intimate Marriage Story or Tarantino, if industry favorite Once Upon a Time ends up dominating in other categories.

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I’d selfishly like to see Hanks pick up his third trophy, but this is a two-way race between Pesci and Pitt. I’m fine with either winning, although my “share the wealth” attitude favors Pitt a bit more since Pesci already has an Oscar in this category (for Goodfellas) while Pitt’s never won for acting (he won as a producer for 12 Years a Slave).

Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Although the supporting categories are often the ones most likely to throw a grenade into everyone’s predictions, the consensus has long been that Dern has it in the bag for her take-no-prisoners performance in Marriage Story. If there’s going to be a surprise winner, I hope it’s Pugh, who played one of Dern’s daughters in Little Women. She nearly stole the movie out from under her more experienced co-stars. But I’m disappointed Jennifer Lopez isn’t here for her killer work in Hustlers.

Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

I’m thrilled Banderas made the cut because he genuinely gave the best performance by an actor last year in Pedro Almodovar’s beautiful, bittersweet Pain and Glory. But, as much as I’d love it, a win isn’t happening. I’m hoping that’s because Driver’s winning instead, but my gut tells me we’ll see Phoenix win his first Oscar for a performance that’s nowhere near his best. Oh, well. I’ll just pretend it’s a make-up prize for his incredible work in Her, The Master and Walk the Line.

Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

As the previous 20 names indicate, we’re back to an overwhelmingly vanilla set of acting nominees after a couple of diverse years in these categories. I was hoping to see Awkwafina nominated for her outstanding work in The Farewell, but alas.

It’s also disappointing that in a year with a huge number of incredible performances from black actors and actresses (including Lupita Nyong’o in Us, Eddie Murphy and Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Dolemite Is My Name, Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Foxx in Just Mercy, Sterling K. Brown in Waves, Kelvin Harrison Jr. in Luce, and many more), the only person to make an appearance is Erivo. No complaints about her inclusion as far as merit goes – she’s a phenomenal actress. Still, it’s a weird look that in 2020 the only black person to get an acting nod did so for playing the most famous runaway slave in American history. Gotta say, the optics aren’t great.

Regardless, this is the biggest lock of the night. Zellweger underwent a stunning physical transformation to portray Judy Garland, and Oscar voters eat that up. She’s taking home her second trophy, but I’ll still be rooting for Ronan to win in an upset.

Best Director:
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, The Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

The Academy frequently splits Best Director and Best Picture, treating the former as a kind of silver medal. This year, I’m honestly stumped. I’m hoping Bong Joon Ho wins since he actually did make the best movie of the year. But if it’s anyone else, I literally don’t care as long as it’s not Phillips. I love all the other films, so I’m happy regardless.

Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

The night’s biggest category might be the biggest question mark of the whole ceremony, which should help build suspense over the long telecast. I’m rooting for Parasite (it was my number one film of 2019), but this is an overwhelming stellar list of nominees. Joker sticks out like a sore thumb, but any of the others would be a worthy winner. If it can’t be Parasite, I’m rooting for Once Upon a Time or The Irishman. I’d love to see Little Women shock everyone, but that’s probably too much to ask.

Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 9 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Once again, there’s no host for the ceremony. That worked well last year, so hopefully things will run just as smoothly this time around.