by Josh Sewell
The 95th annual Academy Award nominations were announced on Tuesday and they mostly played out the way I expected. There were a handful of surprises – both positive and negative – but the choices are strong overall. I’m thrilled about the love for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which received 11 nominations (the most of any film) and The Fabelmans.
I wasn’t expecting such a strong showing for international films All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness, but it’s not exactly a shock considering the strong critical acclaim they’ve received. I’m also bummed The Woman King and Nope were shut out, considering they’re much better than some of the films that made the cut. Oh, well: further evidence that the Oscars are fun as a horserace, but should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality.
The ceremony itself is under new management and executive producers have promised last year’s trainwreck of idiotic proportions won’t be duplicated. As always, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories, including who I think should win and my almost certainly incorrect predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
I was shocked at how great Puss in Boots: The Last Wish turned out to be, so I’m glad to see it here. Turning Red is solid too, although I don’t consider it one of Pixar’s best. Regardless, unless there’s a huge upset, the excellent Pinocchio is one of the night’s safest bets.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
I’d love to see Rian Johnson win this category for Glass Onion, considering it’s the film’s only nomination. However, something tells me Women Talking wins – voters might see it as a consolation prize for Sarah Polley since she was shut out of Best Director, despite the film nabbing a Best Picture nod.
Best Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
This category is an embarrassment of riches, but I still would’ve preferred to see Nope here over Triangle of Sadness. I’m pulling for The Fabelmans as my sentimental favorite, but I think it’s a close race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere.
Best Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hirsch was strong in his minor role, but I would’ve rather seen Paul Dano representing The Fabelmans here instead. It was also exciting to hear Henry’s name called – he’s incredible in the little-seen Causeway. Regardless, this is a suspense-free category. Quan has dominated the awards circuit so far, and deservedly so – he’s the emotional core of Everything Everywhere and Hollywood loves a comeback story. The kid from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies is about to win an Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s not really a surprise to see Chau in this category – she’s great in The Whale (and even better in The Menu), but I think most prognosticators were expecting Janelle Monáe to be here for Glass Onion instead. I’m glad Curtis’ nomination (the first of her career!) didn’t come at the expense of her Everything Everywhere co-star Hsu’s incredible work. This category is known for being unpredictable, but the “it’s her time” narrative seems to have gelled around Bassett. I think she wins, especially considering some high-profile snubs in another category (more on that in a moment).
Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
A few months ago, I would’ve said Fraser had this in the bag. His work in The Whale is genuinely moving, it marks a huge career resurgence and he seems like a supremely decent man. However, the movie surrounding him isn’t very good and it’s been losing steam (as evidenced by its absence in Best Picture). He might still pull it off, yet Butler’s generating buzz at just the right time and Oscar almost always equates “best” with “most.” It doesn’t get much showier than playing Elvis Presley. In any case, I’m rooting for Farrell.
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Riseborough’s inclusion here is the biggest shocker, the result of a perfectly timed social media campaign by several of her high-profile acting colleagues. Sadly, her nomination seems to come at the expense of Danielle Deadwyler in Till or Viola Davis in The Woman King, who’d been considered strong contenders all season long. Seeing de Armas’ name is also a bit unexpected since her great performance as Marilyn Monroe was drowned out by the otherwise awful film surrounding it. But it doesn’t matter – this was always going to be a race between Blanchett and Yeoh. I have a feeling the former is going to win her third Oscar, but I’m crossing my fingers for the latter.
Best Director:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Women have won the Best Director trophy the last two years, but none are even nominated this time (despite several worthy contenders). The favorite here – and the one I’m rooting for – is Spielberg, especially since his semi-autobiographical drama probably won’t win Best Picture. But if Everything Everywhere ends up dominating the evening, the wave could impact this category too.
Best Picture:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Based on the number of overall nominations it received, it seems like Everything Everywhere has the momentum here and I’ll be thrilled if it wins. However, six weeks is an eternity in awards season time, and the other nominees’ publicists will spend every waking moment trying to paint a target on its back. It’s also crucial to remember that voters use a preferential ballot for this category, meaning a solid, well-liked (rather than flat-out adored or loathed) movie like Top Gun: Maverick or Elvis could pull out a win based on the number of second or third place votes it receives. I’m still predicting Everything Everywhere for now, but who knows?
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is set to host for the third time, an intentionally safe choice to calm Academy members’ nerves after the chaos of last year’s ceremony. Considering the admirable way he handled the La La Land/Moonlight fiasco a few years back, we’re probably in good hands.
I wasn’t expecting such a strong showing for international films All Quiet on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness, but it’s not exactly a shock considering the strong critical acclaim they’ve received. I’m also bummed The Woman King and Nope were shut out, considering they’re much better than some of the films that made the cut. Oh, well: further evidence that the Oscars are fun as a horserace, but should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality.
The ceremony itself is under new management and executive producers have promised last year’s trainwreck of idiotic proportions won’t be duplicated. As always, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories, including who I think should win and my almost certainly incorrect predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
I was shocked at how great Puss in Boots: The Last Wish turned out to be, so I’m glad to see it here. Turning Red is solid too, although I don’t consider it one of Pixar’s best. Regardless, unless there’s a huge upset, the excellent Pinocchio is one of the night’s safest bets.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
I’d love to see Rian Johnson win this category for Glass Onion, considering it’s the film’s only nomination. However, something tells me Women Talking wins – voters might see it as a consolation prize for Sarah Polley since she was shut out of Best Director, despite the film nabbing a Best Picture nod.
Best Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
This category is an embarrassment of riches, but I still would’ve preferred to see Nope here over Triangle of Sadness. I’m pulling for The Fabelmans as my sentimental favorite, but I think it’s a close race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere.
Best Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hirsch was strong in his minor role, but I would’ve rather seen Paul Dano representing The Fabelmans here instead. It was also exciting to hear Henry’s name called – he’s incredible in the little-seen Causeway. Regardless, this is a suspense-free category. Quan has dominated the awards circuit so far, and deservedly so – he’s the emotional core of Everything Everywhere and Hollywood loves a comeback story. The kid from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies is about to win an Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s not really a surprise to see Chau in this category – she’s great in The Whale (and even better in The Menu), but I think most prognosticators were expecting Janelle Monáe to be here for Glass Onion instead. I’m glad Curtis’ nomination (the first of her career!) didn’t come at the expense of her Everything Everywhere co-star Hsu’s incredible work. This category is known for being unpredictable, but the “it’s her time” narrative seems to have gelled around Bassett. I think she wins, especially considering some high-profile snubs in another category (more on that in a moment).
Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
A few months ago, I would’ve said Fraser had this in the bag. His work in The Whale is genuinely moving, it marks a huge career resurgence and he seems like a supremely decent man. However, the movie surrounding him isn’t very good and it’s been losing steam (as evidenced by its absence in Best Picture). He might still pull it off, yet Butler’s generating buzz at just the right time and Oscar almost always equates “best” with “most.” It doesn’t get much showier than playing Elvis Presley. In any case, I’m rooting for Farrell.
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Riseborough’s inclusion here is the biggest shocker, the result of a perfectly timed social media campaign by several of her high-profile acting colleagues. Sadly, her nomination seems to come at the expense of Danielle Deadwyler in Till or Viola Davis in The Woman King, who’d been considered strong contenders all season long. Seeing de Armas’ name is also a bit unexpected since her great performance as Marilyn Monroe was drowned out by the otherwise awful film surrounding it. But it doesn’t matter – this was always going to be a race between Blanchett and Yeoh. I have a feeling the former is going to win her third Oscar, but I’m crossing my fingers for the latter.
Best Director:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Women have won the Best Director trophy the last two years, but none are even nominated this time (despite several worthy contenders). The favorite here – and the one I’m rooting for – is Spielberg, especially since his semi-autobiographical drama probably won’t win Best Picture. But if Everything Everywhere ends up dominating the evening, the wave could impact this category too.
Best Picture:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Based on the number of overall nominations it received, it seems like Everything Everywhere has the momentum here and I’ll be thrilled if it wins. However, six weeks is an eternity in awards season time, and the other nominees’ publicists will spend every waking moment trying to paint a target on its back. It’s also crucial to remember that voters use a preferential ballot for this category, meaning a solid, well-liked (rather than flat-out adored or loathed) movie like Top Gun: Maverick or Elvis could pull out a win based on the number of second or third place votes it receives. I’m still predicting Everything Everywhere for now, but who knows?
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is set to host for the third time, an intentionally safe choice to calm Academy members’ nerves after the chaos of last year’s ceremony. Considering the admirable way he handled the La La Land/Moonlight fiasco a few years back, we’re probably in good hands.
Reach out to Josh Sewell on Twitter @IAmJoshSewell
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