by Josh Sewell
The 96th annual Academy Award nominations were announced on Tuesday, and they ended up being the most predictable choices in years. While there were some disappointing omissions and a few relatively unexpected inclusions, the state of the race remains the same.
Oppenheimer is still the juggernaut in most categories and unless something wild happens in the next six weeks, you’re going to hear that word a lot on Oscar night. Regardless, it’s important to remember that the awards are fun as a popularity contest, but they should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality. Occasionally they get it right, though.
With those caveats out of the way, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories. That includes who I think should win and who will win, which doesn’t always match. Still, March 12 is an eternity away in Hollywood time, so don’t put any money on these predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The absence of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is a disappointment, but this was always going to be a race between Heron and Spider-Verse. It’s a coin flip at this point, but I’m guessing that Spidey emerges victorious.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The Academy’s decision to place Barbie in this category threw the whole thing into chaos. I don’t agree (it might be based on toys, but it’s an original story), but the move might end up playing in the film’s favor – especially considering some unfortunate absences in other categories like Best Director and Best Actress. I predict that’s what happens unless it’s a full-blown Oppenheimer sweep.
Best Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Considering voters’ overall disdain for May December (guess that’s what happens when your movie paints a less-than-flattering portrait of actors), look for The Holdovers to take this one. If it were up to me, Past Lives would be the winner, but it seems like a couple of perfunctory nominations will end up being the underrated film’s trophies.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
I was pleasantly surprised to hear Brown’s name called, but equally bummed not to see Charles Melton here for his excellent work in May December. Considering Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore also don’t appear in their respective categories, it’s further proof their movie didn’t connect with the Academy. Nonetheless, I predict Downey will be the one giving a speech on the Oscar stage.
Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
This category’s a mix of predictable names, lackluster inclusions (Foster’s nomination feels halfhearted) and disappointing absences. I was hoping to see Rachel McAdams here for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret., but it’s a moot point. Randolph’s got this in the bag, and for good reason: she’s absolutely incredible in The Holdovers.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
This category played out mostly as expected, although I would’ve preferred to see Andrew Scott’s name here (for his heartbreaking performance in All of Us Strangers) over Cooper or Domingo. Still, this is a two-way race between Giamatti and Murphy. My personal choice would be Wright, but I’m guessing Giamatti takes home the prize – mostly because he’s great in The Holdovers, but also because he somehow wasn’t nominated for 2004’s Sideways.
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Man, those Academy voters really liked Nyad. Bening’s spot should’ve gone to Margot Robbie for Barbie or Greta Lee for Past Lives, but it’s tough to complain about the other nominees. Maestro was underwhelming, but Mulligan was by far the strongest part of the film. Still, this comes down to the two Stones: Emma and Lily Glad-. Unless something unexpected happens, Gladstone deservedly takes it for her phenomenal work as the heart of Flower Moon. But if Stone unexpectedly wins her second Best Actress trophy, I won’t be mad; she’s amazing in Poor Things.
Best Director:
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
The big story here isn’t who was nominated – it’s who wasn’t. I’m sad Greta Gerwig didn’t make the cut, particularly when Glazer did. I know his film has enthusiastic admirers, but I thought it was just okay. Not only did Gerwig direct the year’s biggest commercial hit with Barbie, she’s proven to be an Academy darling in past years with Little Women and Lady Bird. In another year, this might’ve given her film a boost in the Best Picture race. (Remember when Argo took home the top prize, even though Ben Affleck was overlooked in this category?) However, Oppenheimer is too much of a behemoth to overcome – Nolan’s got this.
Best Picture:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Overall, this is a strong crop of nominees – especially compared to previous years. I was lukewarm on Maestro and The Zone of Interest, but I get why others like them. The rest of the films made my Top 10 last year, so not much to gripe about. Nevertheless, with a couple of exceptions, Oppenheimer is as close to a shoo-in as they come. A combination of “Nolan’s due” and the fact it’s actually an excellent film cements its frontrunner status.
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 7:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is set to host yet again (his fourth time), which is understandable since the Academy is still nervous after the Will Smith fiasco a couple of years ago. He’s a safe choice in an equally predictable year, so look for him to make a few tame jokes and keep the train running on time.
Oppenheimer is still the juggernaut in most categories and unless something wild happens in the next six weeks, you’re going to hear that word a lot on Oscar night. Regardless, it’s important to remember that the awards are fun as a popularity contest, but they should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality. Occasionally they get it right, though.
With those caveats out of the way, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories. That includes who I think should win and who will win, which doesn’t always match. Still, March 12 is an eternity away in Hollywood time, so don’t put any money on these predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The absence of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is a disappointment, but this was always going to be a race between Heron and Spider-Verse. It’s a coin flip at this point, but I’m guessing that Spidey emerges victorious.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The Academy’s decision to place Barbie in this category threw the whole thing into chaos. I don’t agree (it might be based on toys, but it’s an original story), but the move might end up playing in the film’s favor – especially considering some unfortunate absences in other categories like Best Director and Best Actress. I predict that’s what happens unless it’s a full-blown Oppenheimer sweep.
Best Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Considering voters’ overall disdain for May December (guess that’s what happens when your movie paints a less-than-flattering portrait of actors), look for The Holdovers to take this one. If it were up to me, Past Lives would be the winner, but it seems like a couple of perfunctory nominations will end up being the underrated film’s trophies.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
I was pleasantly surprised to hear Brown’s name called, but equally bummed not to see Charles Melton here for his excellent work in May December. Considering Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore also don’t appear in their respective categories, it’s further proof their movie didn’t connect with the Academy. Nonetheless, I predict Downey will be the one giving a speech on the Oscar stage.
Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
This category’s a mix of predictable names, lackluster inclusions (Foster’s nomination feels halfhearted) and disappointing absences. I was hoping to see Rachel McAdams here for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret., but it’s a moot point. Randolph’s got this in the bag, and for good reason: she’s absolutely incredible in The Holdovers.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
This category played out mostly as expected, although I would’ve preferred to see Andrew Scott’s name here (for his heartbreaking performance in All of Us Strangers) over Cooper or Domingo. Still, this is a two-way race between Giamatti and Murphy. My personal choice would be Wright, but I’m guessing Giamatti takes home the prize – mostly because he’s great in The Holdovers, but also because he somehow wasn’t nominated for 2004’s Sideways.
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Man, those Academy voters really liked Nyad. Bening’s spot should’ve gone to Margot Robbie for Barbie or Greta Lee for Past Lives, but it’s tough to complain about the other nominees. Maestro was underwhelming, but Mulligan was by far the strongest part of the film. Still, this comes down to the two Stones: Emma and Lily Glad-. Unless something unexpected happens, Gladstone deservedly takes it for her phenomenal work as the heart of Flower Moon. But if Stone unexpectedly wins her second Best Actress trophy, I won’t be mad; she’s amazing in Poor Things.
Best Director:
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
The big story here isn’t who was nominated – it’s who wasn’t. I’m sad Greta Gerwig didn’t make the cut, particularly when Glazer did. I know his film has enthusiastic admirers, but I thought it was just okay. Not only did Gerwig direct the year’s biggest commercial hit with Barbie, she’s proven to be an Academy darling in past years with Little Women and Lady Bird. In another year, this might’ve given her film a boost in the Best Picture race. (Remember when Argo took home the top prize, even though Ben Affleck was overlooked in this category?) However, Oppenheimer is too much of a behemoth to overcome – Nolan’s got this.
Best Picture:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Overall, this is a strong crop of nominees – especially compared to previous years. I was lukewarm on Maestro and The Zone of Interest, but I get why others like them. The rest of the films made my Top 10 last year, so not much to gripe about. Nevertheless, with a couple of exceptions, Oppenheimer is as close to a shoo-in as they come. A combination of “Nolan’s due” and the fact it’s actually an excellent film cements its frontrunner status.
Watch ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 7:00 p.m. to see who wins. Jimmy Kimmel is set to host yet again (his fourth time), which is understandable since the Academy is still nervous after the Will Smith fiasco a couple of years ago. He’s a safe choice in an equally predictable year, so look for him to make a few tame jokes and keep the train running on time.
Reach out to Josh Sewell at joshsewell81@gmail.com
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