by Josh Sewell
The 97th annual Academy Award nominations were announced last week (which already seems like an eternity ago), after several delays because of the devastating Los Angeles fires. While there were the usual disappointing omissions in a few crowded fields, there weren’t many shocking moments when names were called.
As always, it’s important to remember the awards are fun to follow as a horse race, but they should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality. Emilia Pérez, this year’s front-runner with 13 nominations, is proof of that.
With those caveats out of the way, here are my gut reactions to a few of the most popular categories. That includes who I think should win and who will win, at least at this early stage of the awards campaign. March 2 is an eternity away in Academy time, so don’t put any money on these predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
Flow
As always, it’s important to remember the awards are fun to follow as a horse race, but they should never be considered an accurate barometer of quality. Emilia Pérez, this year’s front-runner with 13 nominations, is proof of that.
With those caveats out of the way, here are my gut reactions to a few of the most popular categories. That includes who I think should win and who will win, at least at this early stage of the awards campaign. March 2 is an eternity away in Academy time, so don’t put any money on these predictions.
Best Animated Feature:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
In a perfect world that chooses winners on quality, this would be a toss-up between Flow and The Wild Robot. With few blockbusters in contention, however, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Inside Out 2 emerge victorious. It’s a perfectly fine movie, but the other two are superior in every way. I’m rooting for The Wild Robot.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
In a perfect world that chooses winners on quality, this would be a toss-up between Flow and The Wild Robot. With few blockbusters in contention, however, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Inside Out 2 emerge victorious. It’s a perfectly fine movie, but the other two are superior in every way. I’m rooting for The Wild Robot.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Studios pushed most of their contenders to the end of the year, which means a bunch of great movies ended up falling through the cracks. Nickel Boys and Sing Sing are the best films in this category, but their minimal nominations suggest an Academy looking to award style over substance. As such, look for acting showcase A Complete Unknown to emerge victorious here, unless Emilia Pérez is having an incredible night. I’m hoping Nickel Boys pulls off the underdog win.
Best Original Screenplay:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
There’s no question Anora is the best film in this list. However, the screenplay categories are typically where the Academy honors “out there” movies they’re too scared to back for Best Picture. If we follow that trend, look for The Substance to win.
Best Supporting Actor:
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
This is the night’s easiest prediction: no way Culkin loses. He’s great in A Real Pain, but my complaint is that it’s not a truly supporting role; he’s a co-lead. Borisov is the actual standout here, since his work is the definition of “supporting.” Regardless, no matter how great he, Norton, Pearce and Strong are (honestly, I’d be fine with any of them winning), Culkin has this in the bag.
Best Supporting Actress:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
As with Supporting Actor, there’s no suspense here. Get ready to hear Saldaña deliver her acceptance speech. I shouldn’t complain, but I will. She’s easily the best part of Emilia Pérez, but it’s not a supporting role – she’s the lead. If we’re sticking to the true definition of the category, Grande or Barbaro should win.
Best Actor:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Stan’s inclusion here is a welcome surprise. The Apprentice is just okay, but the actor’s portrayal of Donald Trump comes the closest I’ve ever seen to making the current President an actual person rather than a cartoon character. Still, this is a two-way race between Brody and Chalamet. Based on current momentum, I think the Dune star will become the youngest person to ever win this award. Don’t count out Brody, though: the previous youngest won in 2003 for The Pianist and he might pull it off again. Regardless, I’m rooting for Domingo even though it’s futile.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Studios pushed most of their contenders to the end of the year, which means a bunch of great movies ended up falling through the cracks. Nickel Boys and Sing Sing are the best films in this category, but their minimal nominations suggest an Academy looking to award style over substance. As such, look for acting showcase A Complete Unknown to emerge victorious here, unless Emilia Pérez is having an incredible night. I’m hoping Nickel Boys pulls off the underdog win.
Best Original Screenplay:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
There’s no question Anora is the best film in this list. However, the screenplay categories are typically where the Academy honors “out there” movies they’re too scared to back for Best Picture. If we follow that trend, look for The Substance to win.
Best Supporting Actor:
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
This is the night’s easiest prediction: no way Culkin loses. He’s great in A Real Pain, but my complaint is that it’s not a truly supporting role; he’s a co-lead. Borisov is the actual standout here, since his work is the definition of “supporting.” Regardless, no matter how great he, Norton, Pearce and Strong are (honestly, I’d be fine with any of them winning), Culkin has this in the bag.
Best Supporting Actress:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
As with Supporting Actor, there’s no suspense here. Get ready to hear Saldaña deliver her acceptance speech. I shouldn’t complain, but I will. She’s easily the best part of Emilia Pérez, but it’s not a supporting role – she’s the lead. If we’re sticking to the true definition of the category, Grande or Barbaro should win.
Best Actor:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Stan’s inclusion here is a welcome surprise. The Apprentice is just okay, but the actor’s portrayal of Donald Trump comes the closest I’ve ever seen to making the current President an actual person rather than a cartoon character. Still, this is a two-way race between Brody and Chalamet. Based on current momentum, I think the Dune star will become the youngest person to ever win this award. Don’t count out Brody, though: the previous youngest won in 2003 for The Pianist and he might pull it off again. Regardless, I’m rooting for Domingo even though it’s futile.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Torres is the sentimental inclusion here, considering her mother Fernanda Montenegro was nominated for the same award in 1998. Regardless, look for Moore to win since she’s on the “it’s her time” trajectory. Her career has been hit-or-miss, but she’s Hollywood royalty. She’s outstanding in The Substance, but I consider it a supporting role since she shares her screen time with Margaret Qualley (who was somehow overlooked). I’m rooting for Madison, only because Marianne Jean-Baptiste was sadly ignored for her incredibly complex performance in Hard Truths.
Best Director:
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
This is one of the night’s no-brainers. Corbet should easily take home the trophy considering he made a modern American masterpiece on such a miniscule budget. I’d love to see Baker win in an upset, but I don’t see that happening. Still, the fact that Mangold’s name is included here speaks to the under-the-radar love for A Complete Unknown. This could be a wild year.
Best Picture:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Best Director:
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
This is one of the night’s no-brainers. Corbet should easily take home the trophy considering he made a modern American masterpiece on such a miniscule budget. I’d love to see Baker win in an upset, but I don’t see that happening. Still, the fact that Mangold’s name is included here speaks to the under-the-radar love for A Complete Unknown. This could be a wild year.
Best Picture:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
The year’s biggest prize is also the most unpredictable. If we’re going by number of nominations, look for Emilia Pérez to become the worst Best Picture winner since Crash. Green Book was also bad, but I’d argue it’s slightly better than Jacques Audiard’s trainwreck. My personal choice would be Anora since it’s actually the year’s best film. However, because of the Academy’s ranked choice voting system, don’t underestimate the power of a “pretty good” movie to take home the trophy. In that case, look for A Complete Unknown or Conclave to take home the top prize. At the moment, though, I anticipate a topical epic like The Brutalist to win.
Watch the Oscars on Sunday, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. to see what happens. The ceremony will air on ABC as usual, but for the first time it will also stream live on Hulu. Conan O’Brien is set to host, which is an exciting choice after years of playing it safe with Jimmy Kimmel (or no host at all). He’s got a good rapport with movie stars, but also isn’t afraid to get weird for the sake of entertainment.
Reach out to Josh Sewell at joshsewell81@gmail.com or on BlueSky @joshsewell.bsky.social
The year’s biggest prize is also the most unpredictable. If we’re going by number of nominations, look for Emilia Pérez to become the worst Best Picture winner since Crash. Green Book was also bad, but I’d argue it’s slightly better than Jacques Audiard’s trainwreck. My personal choice would be Anora since it’s actually the year’s best film. However, because of the Academy’s ranked choice voting system, don’t underestimate the power of a “pretty good” movie to take home the trophy. In that case, look for A Complete Unknown or Conclave to take home the top prize. At the moment, though, I anticipate a topical epic like The Brutalist to win.
Watch the Oscars on Sunday, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. to see what happens. The ceremony will air on ABC as usual, but for the first time it will also stream live on Hulu. Conan O’Brien is set to host, which is an exciting choice after years of playing it safe with Jimmy Kimmel (or no host at all). He’s got a good rapport with movie stars, but also isn’t afraid to get weird for the sake of entertainment.
Reach out to Josh Sewell at joshsewell81@gmail.com or on BlueSky @joshsewell.bsky.social
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