by Josh Sewell
The 98th annual Academy Award nominations were announced early on January 22 and I’m mostly thrilled about the organization’s picks. I’m used to griping about how clueless and out of touch Oscar voters are, but they pretty much nailed it this time. Most of the omissions that bummed me out were of the “abundance of riches” variety, so there’s not much to complain about.
Sinners had a legendary morning. After all the categories were announced, Ryan Coogler’s horror masterpiece broke records: it earned 16 nominations, the most in Oscar history. That includes acting nods for the great Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku, both considered long shots by most prognosticators.
I was bummed about an overall lack of Weapons love – it only got a single, well-deserved nomination – but that’s how the race shakes out when Warner Brothers is juggling two other massive frontrunners. I was also surprised by the minimal support for the excellent It Was Just an Accident, whose momentum was blunted by a surge in popularity for The Secret Agent.
Some were surprised that Wicked: For Good was completely shut out after the first chapter got 10 nominations, but it makes sense considering the follow-up is a massive step down in quality. The same goes for Avatar: Fire and Ash, which only got two nominations: Costume Design and Visual Effects.
Here are my gut reactions to some of the most popular categories. I’ll also attempt to predict some winners, but Oscar night is an eternity away in awards season time. I don’t recommend betting on these picks.
Best Animated Feature:
Arco
Sinners had a legendary morning. After all the categories were announced, Ryan Coogler’s horror masterpiece broke records: it earned 16 nominations, the most in Oscar history. That includes acting nods for the great Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku, both considered long shots by most prognosticators.
I was bummed about an overall lack of Weapons love – it only got a single, well-deserved nomination – but that’s how the race shakes out when Warner Brothers is juggling two other massive frontrunners. I was also surprised by the minimal support for the excellent It Was Just an Accident, whose momentum was blunted by a surge in popularity for The Secret Agent.
Some were surprised that Wicked: For Good was completely shut out after the first chapter got 10 nominations, but it makes sense considering the follow-up is a massive step down in quality. The same goes for Avatar: Fire and Ash, which only got two nominations: Costume Design and Visual Effects.
Here are my gut reactions to some of the most popular categories. I’ll also attempt to predict some winners, but Oscar night is an eternity away in awards season time. I don’t recommend betting on these picks.
Best Animated Feature:
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Zootopia 2 is a hit with both critics and general audiences (it has grossed over $1.7 billion worldwide), but KPop Demon Hunters is a genuine pop culture phenomenon. Look for Netflix to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Bugonia
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Zootopia 2 is a hit with both critics and general audiences (it has grossed over $1.7 billion worldwide), but KPop Demon Hunters is a genuine pop culture phenomenon. Look for Netflix to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
I wasn’t a big fan of Guillermo del Toro’s take on Frankenstein, but I’m in the minority. I’d be fine with any of the other films in this category winning, though – I love them all. Look for Paul Thomas Anderson to take home the first Oscar of his career (bonkers!) for turning Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland into a coherent story for our modern era.
Best Original Screenplay:
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
All these movies are terrific, but I’m rooting for Ryan Coogler to win. I think it’ll happen and it’s about time. He should’ve won for 2013’s Fruitvale Station or 2015’s Creed, but he wasn’t nominated for either. This might be the rare case where the best film wins while serving as a “sorry, our bad” award at the same time.
Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Before this category was announced, I was rooting for del Toro. Even though he’s won before, his character is the true heart of Anderson’s comedic thriller. However, now I’m hoping surprise nominee Lindo pulls off an upset. He’s incredible in Coogler’s vampire flick, but he also suffered one of the worst snubs in modern Oscar history when he was overlooked for his astonishing work in 2020’s Da 5 Bloods. Regardless, I think Skarsgård wins this one – though I’d argue it’s cheating since he’s technically the lead of Trier’s family drama.
Best Supporting Actress:
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande’s absence here is probably the big story, but I’m not upset. She’s fine in Wicked: For Good, but the material is nowhere near awards-worthy. Fanning and Lilleaas are both excellent, but I think they cancel each other out. As such, this one is a coin flip between Madigan and Taylor. I’m fine with either winning but look for the “it’s time” narrative to benefit Madigan since Taylor has a long career ahead of her.
Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
This is the year’s most exciting category and I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen. All these guys deliver phenomenal performances and any of them would be a worthy recipient. I think Chalamet has the edge for now, but it’s a long time until mid-March. I’m personally rooting for Hawke, a genial veteran actor who also happens to be brilliant in Richard Linklater’s Broadway dramedy. However, don’t count out Moura due to his support with the fervent Brazilian contingent of the Academy.
Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Hudson is a surprise inclusion (arguably at the expense of Chase Infiniti’s astonishing big screen debut in One Battle After Another), but everyone else deserves to be here. Buckley has been the frontrunner for months and I expect to hear her name when the envelope is opened. However, if there’s going to be an upset, it will be courtesy of Byrne.
Best Director:
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
As with most of the other categories, I’ve got no complaints here. I love each of these movies and all their directors are worthy of the statue. I’d love to see Coogler win, but Anderson has been paying his dues since the ’90s. I won’t be mad – he truly made the year’s best film.
Best Picture:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
The only head-scratcher here is F1 – not a bad movie, but it’s nowhere near Best Picture quality. Frankenstein and The Secret Agent also aren’t for me, even though I get why voters love them. Any of the other nominees would be a worthy champ, but this comes down to a three-way race between One Battle After Another, Sinners and Hamnet. I’m assuming Anderson’s latest masterpiece will be victorious, but a great movie wins even if I’m wrong.
Watch the Oscars on Sunday, March 15 at 7:00 p.m. to check my predictions. The ceremony will air on ABC and Hulu. Conan O’Brien is hosting for the second year in a row, which is fine by me. He brought a sense of irreverent weirdness to the usually stuffy proceedings that made the lengthy ceremony fly by much faster.
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
I wasn’t a big fan of Guillermo del Toro’s take on Frankenstein, but I’m in the minority. I’d be fine with any of the other films in this category winning, though – I love them all. Look for Paul Thomas Anderson to take home the first Oscar of his career (bonkers!) for turning Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland into a coherent story for our modern era.
Best Original Screenplay:
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
All these movies are terrific, but I’m rooting for Ryan Coogler to win. I think it’ll happen and it’s about time. He should’ve won for 2013’s Fruitvale Station or 2015’s Creed, but he wasn’t nominated for either. This might be the rare case where the best film wins while serving as a “sorry, our bad” award at the same time.
Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Before this category was announced, I was rooting for del Toro. Even though he’s won before, his character is the true heart of Anderson’s comedic thriller. However, now I’m hoping surprise nominee Lindo pulls off an upset. He’s incredible in Coogler’s vampire flick, but he also suffered one of the worst snubs in modern Oscar history when he was overlooked for his astonishing work in 2020’s Da 5 Bloods. Regardless, I think Skarsgård wins this one – though I’d argue it’s cheating since he’s technically the lead of Trier’s family drama.
Best Supporting Actress:
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande’s absence here is probably the big story, but I’m not upset. She’s fine in Wicked: For Good, but the material is nowhere near awards-worthy. Fanning and Lilleaas are both excellent, but I think they cancel each other out. As such, this one is a coin flip between Madigan and Taylor. I’m fine with either winning but look for the “it’s time” narrative to benefit Madigan since Taylor has a long career ahead of her.
Best Actor:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
This is the year’s most exciting category and I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen. All these guys deliver phenomenal performances and any of them would be a worthy recipient. I think Chalamet has the edge for now, but it’s a long time until mid-March. I’m personally rooting for Hawke, a genial veteran actor who also happens to be brilliant in Richard Linklater’s Broadway dramedy. However, don’t count out Moura due to his support with the fervent Brazilian contingent of the Academy.
Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Hudson is a surprise inclusion (arguably at the expense of Chase Infiniti’s astonishing big screen debut in One Battle After Another), but everyone else deserves to be here. Buckley has been the frontrunner for months and I expect to hear her name when the envelope is opened. However, if there’s going to be an upset, it will be courtesy of Byrne.
Best Director:
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
As with most of the other categories, I’ve got no complaints here. I love each of these movies and all their directors are worthy of the statue. I’d love to see Coogler win, but Anderson has been paying his dues since the ’90s. I won’t be mad – he truly made the year’s best film.
Best Picture:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
The only head-scratcher here is F1 – not a bad movie, but it’s nowhere near Best Picture quality. Frankenstein and The Secret Agent also aren’t for me, even though I get why voters love them. Any of the other nominees would be a worthy champ, but this comes down to a three-way race between One Battle After Another, Sinners and Hamnet. I’m assuming Anderson’s latest masterpiece will be victorious, but a great movie wins even if I’m wrong.
Reach out to Josh Sewell at joshsewell81@gmail.com or on BlueSky @joshsewell.bsky.social
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