2011 Oscar Nominations

Oscar nominations were announced last week, and it looks like I don’t have a lot of catching up to do this year. I’ve seen every Best Picture nominee except for 127 Hours, and I’m planning to catch that one soon. Plus, in a weird bit of parallel thinking, the Academy’s candidates for the top prize line up with my Best of 2010 List almost exactly. Except for my inclusion of Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World, it’s a perfect match. Here are the nominees in some of the top categories, along with my early picks for the winners.

 

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

The problem with the current award season schedule is that by the time the Oscars take place, the winners in each category have also nabbed pretty much every other award out there. That’s certainly the case with this year’s Best Actor — it’s all about Firth. He does a phenomenal job in The King’s Speech, and he was the frontrunner last year before Bridges swept in and stole his thunder. The Academy will make up for it this time around.

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

This category’s easy too —Bale is practically guaranteed his first Oscar. His performance in The Fighter is intense, physical and ostentatious, traits that Academy voters eat up. The biggest treat for me was seeing Hawkes’ name pop up here. He’s not going to win, but his tense, unsettling work in Winter’s Bone certainly justifies his inclusion in the category.

Best Actress:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

There are two ways this race could go. Portman is certainly the frontrunner for her career-best performance in the disturbing and mesmerizing Black Swan. However, there has also been a lot of buzz surrounding Bening’s more subtle work as a lesbian mother in The Kids Are All Right. Plus, she’s been passed over several times for a younger actress in a flashier role. Oscar voters might want to address that oversight this year. My gut feeling is Portman will come out on top since her role is the flashier of the two.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Adams is one of my favorite actresses, so I’d like nothing more than to see her on that stage clutching her well-deserved Oscar. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening this time. Leo, her co-star in The Fighter, gets to chew way more scenery and has already racked up several other awards. I’d love to be wrong on this one, but it’s most likely Leo’s night.

Best Animated Feature:

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Considering only one of these flicks was also nominated for Best Picture, this category’s a no-brainer. Of course, there’s always the possibility of an upset. In that case, I would imagine the arty and more obscure The Illusionist could play spoiler. But don’t count on it; Toy Story 3 has this one in the bag.

Best Director:

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

This category is a little tricky. Most of the time, it goes to the director of the movie that ends up winning Best Picture (like last year when Kathryn Bigelow won for The Hurt Locker). However, it’s occasionally used as a consolation prize when the Academy is going a different way in the bigger category (i.e., Ang Lee’s trophy for directing Brokeback Mountain the same year Crash won Best Picture). In the first scenario, this year’s winner will be Hooper; but Fincher’s your man in Scenario B. Considering how the awards season has shaken out so far, my guess is we’re in for a King's Speech sweep and Hooper takes Best Director.

Best Picture:

127 Hours 

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

The Academy went with 10 Best Picture nominees again this year, and it’s a surprisingly audience-friendly list. Still, the race comes down to The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Academy voters tend to skew older, and they love to vote for two kinds of movies: sweeping historical dramas (especially if they’re British) and anything even remotely connected to the Holocaust. Additionally, many of them probably don’t even understand e-mail, let alone Facebook. I’m pulling for The Social Network, but the Academy’s biggest demographic is a perfect storm that just screams The King’s Speech.

Be sure to watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 27 at 8 p.m. to see who the big winners are. Co-hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway are solid choices, and it will be interesting to see if they add any youthful vigor to the proceedings. Feel free to e-mail me at Josh8199@aol.com to share your Oscar thoughts.