MY TAKE: 2013 Oscar Nominations

Courtesy of AMPAS

Oscar nominations were announced last week and, as always, there were a few big surprises and snubs. I was particularly impressed with this year’s Best Picture crop, which only has a couple of choices I disagree with. Here are the nominees in some of the top categories, along with my gut reactions.

Best Animated Feature: 
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits 
Wreck-It Ralph

The Pirates! surprised a lot of people who were expecting Rise of the Guardians to appear in this category, but the academy usually throws in an out-of-left-field title. Disney’s got to be elated with the results – three of the nominees are theirs. I’m guessing the race is between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, both of which are quality films. I’d be fine with either winning, but my sentimental pick is Brave. I’ve probably seen it 100 times now thanks to my two-year-old daughter.

Best Supporting Actor:

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

The supporting categories are usually where Oscar shakes up expectations a bit. General consensus has Jones as the frontrunner for his fiery performance in Lincoln, but the category is packed with phenomenal actors. That includes Arkin, who surprised everyone a few years ago by winning in this category for Little Miss Sunshine when most thought Eddie Murphy was a lock for his career-topping work in Dreamgirls. I’d love to see Waltz take home the prize for delivering the best performance in a film full of them. I think Jones still has a slight edge, but I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these guys win.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Barring one of the most stunning upsets in Oscar history, Hathaway’s had this one in the bag for months. Even critics who hate Les Miserables say she’s amazing in it. Still, anything could happen. I’ve heard chatter suggesting Field has a lot of support for her work as Lincoln’s long-suffering wife. As long shots go, she’s the most likely to make Hathaway throw on her best “it’s an honor just to be nominated” face in the Dolby Theatre next month.

Best Actor:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables 

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Day-Lewis is the other big lock of the evening. Every actor in this category has gotten rave reviews over the last few months (and deservedly so), but the two-time Oscar winner’s performance is on an entirely different level. He completely immerses himself in the character, turning one of America’s most mythical figures into an actual person with hopes, fears and emotions. I’d say the only person with a miniscule shot at an upset is Washington. For some reason, a subset of academy voters love them some Flight.

Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Although the academy broke a couple of records with this category – Riva (at 85) and Wallis (at 9) are now officially the oldest and youngest Best Actress nominees in Oscar history – it’s probably a two-way race.  For most of the fall, Chastain and Lawrence have been trading frontrunner status. Both deliver blistering performances: Chastain is incredibly focused and understated, while Lawrence is fierce and ostentatious. Voters tend to frown on subtlety, which would point to Lawrence emerging victorious. However, the academy also appreciates how contenders play the campaign game, which is Chastain’s strong suit. I’ll wager a guess that Lawrence wins since Silver Linings Playbook has nominees in all four acting categories. That’s a lot of academy love.

Best Director:

Michael Haneke, Amour

Ang Lee, Life of Pi 

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Here’s where things get hazy. This category provided the biggest gasps when nominations were announced. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, who helmed presumed Best Picture favorites Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, failed to hear their names called. Instead, academy members went with surprise nominees Haneke and Zeitlin, dramatically reshaping the playing field for several categories. For the first time in years, I’m legitimately stumped on two of the evening’s biggest prizes. I’m taking a complete shot in the dark, but I’d say it’s now between Spielberg and Russell, simply because they directed the films with the most overall nominations and the most nominations in the creative categories, respectively. If that’s the case, I hope it’s Spielberg since his is the better movie.

Best Picture: 
Amour

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook 
Zero Dark Thirty

Before last Thursday I would’ve told you this race was between Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. I’d love to see either of those win, but history tells us it ain’t happening. Whether it’s true or not, the general consensus is that the real contenders can be found by eliminating any flick without a Best Director nomination. My gut tells me Amour and Beasts are in the “making the cut is the win” group. That leaves Lincoln, Pi, and Playbook. I could provide a reason why any of these could emerge on top, but I’ll narrow it down to Lincoln and Playbook for the reasons listed previously. If voters are in a historical mood, Spielberg gets his second-ever Best Picture win. If they go with most entertaining, the cast and crew of Playbook are going to have a good night. I loved both flicks, so I’m fine either way.

Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 24 at 8 p.m. to see who wins. Seth MacFarlane (Family Guy, Ted) is an interesting choice for host. We’ll see if he can walk the razor-thin line between honoring Hollywood’s most revered tradition and letting some air out of the overinflated egos in the room. He’s got his work cut out for him after Tina Fey and Amy Poehler made hosting look effortless during last Sunday’s Golden Globes.