There’s plenty to be excited about: a strong showing for Alfonso Cuaron’s powerful Roma, Spike Lee is finally an Oscar-nominated director after more than three decades, and Black Panther becomes the first superhero movie ever nominated for Best Picture. There are also some puzzling choices: Best Picture nominations for mediocre films like Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. Best Director and Best Documentary also produced stunning results, including snubs for Bradley Cooper and Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, the Mr. Rogers doc that most prognosticators expected to win handily.
As always, here are some brief thoughts on a few of the most popular categories, including who I think should win and my almost-certain-to-be-wrong predictions for who will win. Do not – I repeat, do not – use this article to help win your office’s Oscar pool. It probably won’t end well.
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Overall, this is a terrific batch of nominees. Before last month, I would’ve been rooting for Ralph Breaks the Internet. But then Into the Spider-Verse surpassed everyone’s expectations and blew me away. It’s unquestionably the year’s best animated film, so it should win. Never underestimate Disney’s sway over this category, but having two films in contention might split the vote.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could TalkEric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Again, not a lot to complain about in this category. These are all terrific films full of incredible performances and creative flourishes. I’m happy to see Spike Lee’s name here, and I’ve got a feeling he and his co-writers might just take home the trophy. If not, look for voters to throw Bradley Cooper some love since he missed the cut in Best Director.
Best Original Screenplay:
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Simply put, Green Book doesn’t belong here. The only reason that glorified Hallmark movie even works is because of Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen, not the clichéd, tone-deaf script. Still, a subset of the Academy loves this flick for some baffling reason, so this might be one of the only chances they get to throw it a bone. I’m rooting for First Reformed – especially since Ethan Hawke missed out on a Best Actor nomination – but I’d be happy with any of the first four winning. My gut tells me I’m going to be disappointed.
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
I’m so happy to see Sam Elliott here, earning his first Oscar nomination in a career spanning 50 years. I’d love to see him pull out the win, but his heartbreaking work in A Star Is Born is far subtler than Ali’s showy Green Book performance. A wise man once told me the Oscars make much more sense if you replace “Best” with “Most,” an observation that rarely steers me wrong. As such, look for Ali to take home another Best Supporting Actor statue to match the one he earned for 2016’s Moonlight.
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Marina de Tavira is the big surprise here, although her incredible performance as a harried mother in Roma certainly merits her inclusion. Stone and Weisz have the most ostentatious roles in the category, but they seem destined to cancel each other out. Plus, Stone isn’t really a supporting character in The Favourite – she’s the lead. I’m hoping to see Regina King give her acceptance speech, but I think this might finally be Amy Adams’ year. Considering this is her sixth nomination with no previous wins, she’s certainly due.
Best Actor:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Willem Dafoe is the big surprise, although he earned plenty of acclaim for his work as Vincent Van Gogh. The big question mark here is Cooper – could he rally more support for his performance in A Star Is Born since he got overlooked in Best Director? (Hey, that’s why Argo won Best Picture back in 2012.) My gut tells me that Christian Bale’s astounding transformation into Dick Cheney will be too powerful for voters to ignore, but man those older Academy voters love them some Bohemian Rhapsody. If they realize this category makes the most sense to reward it, Rami Malek (an amazing standout in a disappointing biopic) could take home the Oscar.
Best Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I’m thrilled to see Yalitza Aparicio’s name here. I didn’t love Roma as much as other critics, but her beautiful performance is undeniable. Also happy to see McCarthy made the cut – I was afraid she’d be one of the season’s high-profile snubs. Still, this is a two-way race between Lady Gaga and Glenn Close since Colman – while incredible – should be in the Best Supporting category (honestly, she and Stone should switch places). Close has dominated all the precursor awards and has inexplicably never won an Oscar. Look for the Academy to correct that oversight.
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
The big shock here is Pawel Pawlikowski making it in rather than Bradley Cooper, although it’s not unwarranted. Cold War, also nominated for Best Foreign Film, is a stunning achievement (look for my review next week). However, it didn’t get a Best Picture nomination, a weird circumstance that doesn’t say much for Pawlikowski’s chances. I’m assuming Cuaron wins easily, though I’d love to be blindsided by a Spike Lee victory. More than any other film in this category, BlacKkKlansman is a searing reflection of modern America.
Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Again, I’m baffled that Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are here. They are nowhere near the quality of the other competitors. Aside from those, however, this is a killer group. I’d be happy with any of them winning, but my gut says Roma takes home the night’s top prize. But if it turns out that Green Book – 2018’s version of Driving Miss Daisy – beats out the far more compelling and insightful Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman, it’ll be the worst decision the Academy has made since 2006, when Crash beat frontrunner Brokeback Mountain.
Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 24 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. As of now, there’s no plans for a host since the Kevin Hart fiasco, so we might see a trainwreck of epic proportions. Or, more optimistically, maybe the ceremony will end early and I can be in bed before midnight. I’m not holding my breath.
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Overall, this is a terrific batch of nominees. Before last month, I would’ve been rooting for Ralph Breaks the Internet. But then Into the Spider-Verse surpassed everyone’s expectations and blew me away. It’s unquestionably the year’s best animated film, so it should win. Never underestimate Disney’s sway over this category, but having two films in contention might split the vote.
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could TalkEric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Again, not a lot to complain about in this category. These are all terrific films full of incredible performances and creative flourishes. I’m happy to see Spike Lee’s name here, and I’ve got a feeling he and his co-writers might just take home the trophy. If not, look for voters to throw Bradley Cooper some love since he missed the cut in Best Director.
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Simply put, Green Book doesn’t belong here. The only reason that glorified Hallmark movie even works is because of Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen, not the clichéd, tone-deaf script. Still, a subset of the Academy loves this flick for some baffling reason, so this might be one of the only chances they get to throw it a bone. I’m rooting for First Reformed – especially since Ethan Hawke missed out on a Best Actor nomination – but I’d be happy with any of the first four winning. My gut tells me I’m going to be disappointed.
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
I’m so happy to see Sam Elliott here, earning his first Oscar nomination in a career spanning 50 years. I’d love to see him pull out the win, but his heartbreaking work in A Star Is Born is far subtler than Ali’s showy Green Book performance. A wise man once told me the Oscars make much more sense if you replace “Best” with “Most,” an observation that rarely steers me wrong. As such, look for Ali to take home another Best Supporting Actor statue to match the one he earned for 2016’s Moonlight.
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Marina de Tavira is the big surprise here, although her incredible performance as a harried mother in Roma certainly merits her inclusion. Stone and Weisz have the most ostentatious roles in the category, but they seem destined to cancel each other out. Plus, Stone isn’t really a supporting character in The Favourite – she’s the lead. I’m hoping to see Regina King give her acceptance speech, but I think this might finally be Amy Adams’ year. Considering this is her sixth nomination with no previous wins, she’s certainly due.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Willem Dafoe is the big surprise, although he earned plenty of acclaim for his work as Vincent Van Gogh. The big question mark here is Cooper – could he rally more support for his performance in A Star Is Born since he got overlooked in Best Director? (Hey, that’s why Argo won Best Picture back in 2012.) My gut tells me that Christian Bale’s astounding transformation into Dick Cheney will be too powerful for voters to ignore, but man those older Academy voters love them some Bohemian Rhapsody. If they realize this category makes the most sense to reward it, Rami Malek (an amazing standout in a disappointing biopic) could take home the Oscar.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I’m thrilled to see Yalitza Aparicio’s name here. I didn’t love Roma as much as other critics, but her beautiful performance is undeniable. Also happy to see McCarthy made the cut – I was afraid she’d be one of the season’s high-profile snubs. Still, this is a two-way race between Lady Gaga and Glenn Close since Colman – while incredible – should be in the Best Supporting category (honestly, she and Stone should switch places). Close has dominated all the precursor awards and has inexplicably never won an Oscar. Look for the Academy to correct that oversight.
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
The big shock here is Pawel Pawlikowski making it in rather than Bradley Cooper, although it’s not unwarranted. Cold War, also nominated for Best Foreign Film, is a stunning achievement (look for my review next week). However, it didn’t get a Best Picture nomination, a weird circumstance that doesn’t say much for Pawlikowski’s chances. I’m assuming Cuaron wins easily, though I’d love to be blindsided by a Spike Lee victory. More than any other film in this category, BlacKkKlansman is a searing reflection of modern America.
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Again, I’m baffled that Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are here. They are nowhere near the quality of the other competitors. Aside from those, however, this is a killer group. I’d be happy with any of them winning, but my gut says Roma takes home the night’s top prize. But if it turns out that Green Book – 2018’s version of Driving Miss Daisy – beats out the far more compelling and insightful Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman, it’ll be the worst decision the Academy has made since 2006, when Crash beat frontrunner Brokeback Mountain.
Watch ABC on Sunday, Feb. 24 at 8:00 p.m. to see who wins. As of now, there’s no plans for a host since the Kevin Hart fiasco, so we might see a trainwreck of epic proportions. Or, more optimistically, maybe the ceremony will end early and I can be in bed before midnight. I’m not holding my breath.
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